This was true enough for almost everyone in 1989. Those of us who acknowledged the risk thought we had prepared sufficiently and that the overpass was not likely to land on us. The San Francisco Bay Area is almost certain to have a catastrophic earthquake вЂ“ The Big One вЂ“ in our lifetime but average residents there act as though every day without a quake makes it less likely to happen. The stock market crash was another one, but we were hit only mildly, a larger crash is sure to come. Somehow I cannot see that happening either.Д¬ome to think of it, global warming is one such foretold disaster.

While I cannot see a) or b) happening any time soon, this really seems to be the only option for survival as a society, unless we are very, very lucky over a very long time. (Not a surprise.) So the way to do this would be to have a) a process that reliably identifies true risk experts and b) force the responsibility to make far-reaching decisions for society on them. Unfortunately, there are only few of those around, and while I know several, not one of them would go into politics unless forced to. The only option to avoid this seems to be to put real risk experts into power. I find this incredibly scary, because it means that the way decision makers for society are chosen today dooms us if any disasters of a large magnitude are actually going to happen.

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